Google’s Android operating system will account for half of all smartphones by 2012, according to research firm, Gartner.
In a forecast issued yesterday, the company predicted that Android would take a significant lead over Apple’s iOS and that Microsoft’s Windows Phone 7 would take second place by 2015, with 19.5% of the market, compared to Apple’s 18.9%.
Gartner’s prediction sees both Apple and RIM losing out to Google and Microsoft in terms of market share over the next four years, with HP’s WebOS a long way behind. That market, according to Gartner, will see sales of 468m units in 2011, nearly 60% more than in 2010, rising to 1.1bn units in 2015.
‘By 2015, 67 percent of all open OS devices will have an average selling price of $300 or below, proving that smartphones have been finally truly democratized,’ said Roberta Cozza, principal analyst at Gartner. ‘As vendors delivering Android-based devices continue to fight for market share, price will decrease to further benefit consumers.’
Gartner’s definition of ‘open’, however, is somewhat unusual. It counts any platform with published APIs and an SDK as open, including iOS and Windows Phone 7.
While Apple and RIM may lose out in terms of platform market share, on these figures they will still be the largest handset manufacturers.
Forecasts about platform growth and market share are complicated by the fact that smartphone operating systems are used on some tablets, as well as phone handsets. And Apple’s strength in the tablet market, with the iPad, means that iOS’ share of both markets together will be slightly better than its share of the smartphone market. Gartner predicts that this year, sale of tablets will reach 69 million units.
Last week, Gartner research director, David Willis said that the iPad was ‘far ahead of any competition’ in terms of its readiness to be deployed on a large scale in businesses.
‘Not only does it have a first-mover advantage in the device itself, but it has built a curated application distribution mechanism in the App Store that is notable both for how users hold it in high regard and how detractors see it as a limitation. In the end, Apple’s lead will be very difficult to beat,’ said Willis in a statement.
